MMA Weekly Comments

September 30, 2006

Comments for the week beginning October 2, 2006

By Raymond Merriman

Please note: This is not the same as our service titled "MMA Weekly Comments and Recommendations on Financial Markets," which is available by subscription only. For a Flowchart on MMA Products and Services, click here


Review and Preview

Financial astrology is, in my opinion, the most accurate market tool that I know of. Yet like all tools of market analysis, it is not infallible, nor does it work best as a “stand-alone” system. It works best in combination with other tools of market analysis, whether technical studies, pattern and chart recognition studies, and even fundamental analysis.

For the past several weeks (since mid-August), there have been a series of geocosmic “cluster zones” that historically have had a high correlation with reversals in financial markets. In each case they worked, but only for a few days, after which equity indices resumed their rallies to new highs. And now the U.S. stock market (Dow Jones Industrial Average) has reached the point where it is testing its all-time high. Friday’s high was 11,742. The all-time high of January 2000 was 11,750. When it breaks convincingly above 11,750, it will confirm one of the two long-term cycles’ labelings as outlined in our subscription reports: namely, that the low of October 2002 was a longer-term 18-year cycle trough, and not just a 4-year cycle. From our study of cycles, we know that the early stages of any cycle are always bullish and later stages of older cycles are usually very bearish. And due to the bullish nature of the current stock market since October 2002, this sure looks like the first four-year cycle phase of a longer-term 18-year cycle, and not the last stages of an older 18-year cycle. Applying one’s knowledge of astrology to a bull market is different than applying it to a bear market.

But the question I am most asked about lately in regards to stock market rally is: “Why didn’t financial astrology foretell the power of this stock market rally?” With the shorter-term 4-year cycle ideally due by the end of this year, there was a preponderance of reasons to believe the highs of May 10 would remain intact as the crest of the 4-year cycle, from which a 20+% decline would follow. And for the next two months, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 1000 points from 11,670 to the 10,683 low of mid-July, it looked like it was unfolding as expected, within the context of an older (bearish) 18-year cycle. But then the rally began that now seems like it will never end. Will it ever end? Did financial astrology fail? Yes to the first, no to the second. With the belief that the 4-year and 18-year cycles had topped out, the theory of cycle’s analysis suggested (to me) that the highs of January 2000 and May 2006 would hold. But they didn’t, and so it is necessary to re-label these cycles, especially the 18-year cycle, which I will now postulate to top out within 4 months of May 2008, just around the time of the next UAC gathering (United Astrological Conference, www.uacastrology.com). However, even before then, I continue to believe that the 4-year cycle trough will occur, still dropping these indices 20% sometime within the next year. The 4-year cycle didn’t skip a beat. We are still within its normal time frame of 36-56 months from the last occurrence of October 2002.

So from a financial astrology point of view, is there anything that can account for this rally to new stock market highs in the past week? The one thing I will suggest is that this continuation rally is a spillover of the euphoric and “irrational exuberance” principles of the Jupiter-Neptune square that occurred last Sunday-Monday, September 24-25. In my experience, it is not uncommon to see a market rally strongly into Jupiter aspects like this, and continue “spilling over” for up to ten trading days. Jupiter is notorious for exaggeration. And sad to say, the market is capable of being “irrational” far longer than one’s pocketbook can wait for rational logic to return to the markets. But let’s put this in perspective. We can see that the Dow Industrials have rallied less than 4% from its monthly low on September 8. As a point of comparison, we also note that other markets that geocosmic studies were bullish on rallied far more impressively. Gold has rallied 6% and Silver nearly 12% since their monthly lows of September 15, only two weeks ago. Corn – another market we have suggested investors buy a mo nth ago – rose to its highest level on the nearby contract in two years last week. A month ago the December contract was at its lowest price of the year. It simply points out the importance of diversifying one’s portfolio, taking all the trades suggested (and not just one market - stocks), and the possibility that all this euphoria in stocks may simply be a spillover of Jupiter-Neptune principle.

Short-Term Geocosmics

As stated last week, “Our attention will now shift to the ingress of heliocentric Mercury entering Sagittarius (September 25-October 6), as well as the “Sagittarius Factor” that unfolds Wednesday-Friday of this coming week. The combination could produce very wild markets, with very large price swings, especially in precious metals, currencies, and crude oil.” Indeed we saw this, as Gold soared to above $612.00, Silver above $11.80 on Thursday, from their lows of 576 and 10.55 just two weeks ago. And Crude Oil has soared from a low of 59.65 last Monday to 64.00 intraday Thursday. Not bad for a double dose of Sagittarius influences on Wednesday and Thursday!

This week finds Venus ingressing into Libra on Saturday, September 30, where it will remain through October 24. Venus rules Libra, so one would think this is a positive for equities. At the same time, we look for an important low to form in the precious metals (especially Silver) during this period. From October 4 through October 10, Mars, Sun, and Venus all form a trine aspect to Neptune. This is likely to affect crude oil prices, and possibly interest-rate sensitive markets too. In a mundane sense, this could correlate with greater efforts for peace in the world, for Neptune in trine aspect is the desire for peace and beauty. It may be a good time to experience infatuation.

Long-Term Thoughts

Despite the run up to new multi-year highs in many of the world stock indices, we are still in the time band of the very important Saturn-Neptune opposition (August 2006-June 2007). Despite the fact that the Saturn-Neptune opposition continues to put on display an abundance of news reports on governmental leaks, harmful spying activities, fraudulent business activity, corruption and scandals in government and businesses around the world, the stock markets still continue to rally. When we go back into history and examine the 6 previous instances of this 36-year cycle in the U.S. stock market (as done in The Ultimate Book On Stock Market Timing, Volume 2: Geocosmic Correlations to Investment Cycles), we will see that 4-year or greater cycle crests are much more common than 4-year cycle troughs (4 crests, only 1 trough, and one instance of neither), even though each of these periods coincided with some rather outstanding scandals. Take for instance the last time, June 1971 through April 1972. The stock market rallied during most of this period and beyond, to a new all-time high in January 1973, even after the aspect ended. But it was also during this period that the Watergate burglaries (cover up) took place, which was finally discovered and brought to the public’s awareness in 1973 – after the elections - leading to the downfall and subsequent resignation of then-President Richard Nixon.

As stated in Stock Market Timing book referred to above, “In most cases, the bigger cycle (in stocks) did not unfold within the central time band (of the aspect). More often than not, the long-term stock market cycle unfolded within one year after the aspect. This tendency (of the aspect) to unfold before the cycle is completed may be consistent with Neptune’s character of “hiding the negative facts” while the aspect is in effect. Maybe the truth of the difficulties in the economy, government, or market in general is not realized (or believed) until the aspect is completed. While it is in effect, it seems to camouflage those difficulties.”

Let’s see what this week brings. The end of the quarter earnings and the “portfolio dressing” period is now over as September ends. Now we will see if the “spillover” of the Jupiter-Neptune square ends as well – or if this rally in stocks is for real.

Announcements:

The “MMA Financial Market Timing” course takes place October 13-15 at the beautiful Pointe Hilton Tapatio Cliffs Resort in Phoenix, Arizona! The Hilton’s direct line for reservations is 1-800-876-4683 or 1-602-870-2722. At this seminar, attendees will learn the MMA method of market timing and how to project future prices and critical reversal dates in financial markets, with emphasis upon the U.S. stock market, Gold and Silver, and the coming bull market in Corn. Seminar Fee: The cost of this 2-day, 14- hour, MMA Market Timing Seminar is $1995.00. There is an optional 4-hour pre-seminar on Friday, October 13, on “Basic Principles of Geocosmic Signatures.” Registration: You may register for this MMA Market Timing Seminar via credit card by calling 1-800-662-3349 or 1-248-626-3034, or faxing registration to 1-248-538-5296. You may also register via e-mail at ordersmma@msn.com, or by website at www.mmacycles.com, or by sending check or money order in US funds to MMA, P.O. Box 250012, W. Bloomfield, MI 48325 U.S.A. For further information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/Market%20Timing%20Flyer%20LZ.pdf.

The Forecasts for 2007 Book may now be ordered online at a special pre-publication discounted price prior to October 15. The actual release date of this year’s book will be December 15, same as always. It is wise to order early because in 2 of the past 3 years, these books have sold out. For more information, go to the banner on our web site at www.mmacycles.com.

If you are an active short-term trader, you may wish to consider subscribing to our Weekly or even Daily Market Reports with short-term trading recommendations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Bonds, Soybeans, Wheat, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Bonds, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services.htm, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034.


Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the authors understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycles analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.

Copyright MMACycles 2006 - you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise). Owners of websites: this Weekly Market Climate and MMA Weekly or Daily Analysis are available for co-branding. Call 1-800-662-3340 for details.

Next Page »

^ top :: Styling: MoonWise :: CMS: WordPress