Comments for the week beginning JUNE 5, 2006
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Review and Preview:
Hold on to your seat. Here we go. Friday, June 2 began the first trading day of the third powerful cluster of geocosmic signatures for this year. The previous two (March 1-17 and April 30-May 10) were extremely dynamic in terms of providing exceptional trading opportunities. Based on the past two trading days (June 1-2), it appears that this current time band will be just as significant.
What happened last week? Well, Silver fell to 1155, its lowest level since March, and already down nearly 25% from its 20+year highs of May 11 (prior cluster zone). This is consistent with our forecast for a 111-week cycle trough as discussed in the Forecasts for 2006 book for this time period. Gold is also falling, with the August contract touching 625 on June 1, well off its high of 732 achieved on May 11. On the other hand, the Euro nearby futures raced to its highest level in over a year on Friday, June 2. This too is consistent with our forecast (and special report) that the Euro is in a new 4-year cycle, with a target of at least 1.4000, and possibly even 1.7000 area in the next few several months.
World equity markets also had an up week last week, as suggested in this column last week. However, the performance leaves a lot of open questions. Although nearly all the indices rose, none of them succeeded in closing above their 25-day moving averages, which leaves open the possibility that this current cluster could still produce a new multi-month low. Once we exceed those moving averages, we can confirm the lows of the past two weeks were primary in nature. But even then, the cluster zone may produce a high from which prices fall sharply into their 4-year cycle troughs, which are still due before the end of this year. And that 4-year cycle trough is still expected to finds these indices off at least 20% from the highs of the year attained in May.
This week, therefore, is very important. Readers should understand that about 70% of the time, the market is in congestion, looking for a reason to trend in one direction or another. Only 30% of the time (approximately) is the trend really clear to most analysts, including me. And this is why astrology is such a valuable tool – it gives us a slight edge in many cases, especially when the trend is unclear (which is most of the time).
Short-Term Geocosmics:
June 4-22 contains seven Level One signatures, the most powerful and consistent correlations to primary or greater cycles in stock indices. That’s a lot in such a short span of time. Two of them occur this Sunday and Monday, June 4-5. The first is Venus in waning square to Saturn, which has a 70% correlation to primary or greate3r cycles within 11 trading days. With this aspect, we like to find markets that make lows close by, for Saturn works best when it correlates with depressed prices, Then, when the aspect passes, prices rise sharply. The lows we saw in many indices, precious metals, and even currencies in the past two trading days fir this pattern very well.
The other Level One signature is the Sun forming a waxing square to Uranus on Monday, June 5. This is an even more impressive correlation to cycle culminations than the Venus-Saturn square. In this case, primary or greater cycles happen about 82% of the time within 11 trading days. Not only that, but 4% or greater reversals have been noted within 4 trading days in 86% of cases studied. The Sun-Uranus signature is a very volatile one. The nature of Uranus is to either reverse suddenly and without much warning, or to move extremely sharply, well past well defined support or resistance levels. This is the signature that worries me right now with stocks. Because they could not rally above the 25-day moving averages last week, it makes one wonder if they might not suddenly roll right back over again and fall hard into the middle of this June 4-22 cluster zone. Or, if they rally sharply and close well above the 25-day moving average, we can anticipate the surge will continue into the middle of this time band for a high instead of a low. It is a case of where we have to let the market tell us what it is going to do, probably early this coming week, as the Sun squares Uranus.
Long-Term Thoughts:
Readers have often asked me why I don’t comment on the immigration issue that is so contentious here in the United States. The reason is because this column goes all over the world, in eight different languages. Not only is this an issue that is not of great interest to other nations, I am not even so certain it is that important (yet) in the minds of most Americans, other than those living in states that are on the border of other nations. In fact, it may be of most importance to those living on the border of Mexico, and perhaps Florida. I live on the border of Canada, and it is not a highly charged issue here -yet.
To analyze this issue, we must look closely at the chart of the United States, and not the overall transiting aspects that affect all peoples of all nations. As stated in previous columns, as well as in great detail in the Forecast for 2006 book, the progressed Mars of the United States is about to turn retrograde for the first time in its history, and it will remain retrograde for about 72 years. As suggested before, I think this means that the United States will change its entire historical use of its military. Instead of going overseas to defend the freedom of other nations (its allies), the U.S.A. is more likely to bring the troops home to defend its borders. The building of the “wall” along the Mexican border to keep illegal immigrants out is an extension of this issue. How can you justify building such a wall, and deploying troops to watch over it, if you don’t first create an issue around illegal immigration? And in doing so, you also detract the national attention away from other issues that are very unpopular. In other words, this is an issue that can become highly charged, and an issue from which the leadership of the country can possibly get support for passage of new laws that will give the appearance that it is in fact “doing something constructive.”
But one wonders if this might become just another case of doing something – anything – for the purpose of “appearing” to make a change? And will the change really be better, or lead to more serious problems not foreseen at this point? This is the lesson the Saturn-Uranus-Pluto transits right now, and in the years 2008-2010. Right now (2006) these planets are forming a sesquiquadrate (135 degree aspect between Saturn and Pluto) and a quincunx (150 degree aspect between Saturn and Uranus). This suggests the awareness of a problem, but not necessarily a well-thought out solution. It also represents the urgency to do something, even though one is not sure what the best course of action is.
But then these same three planets continue towards their climax of a T-square in 2008-2010. This is an aspect pattern of great importance. It is powerful, especially as all three planets will be entering cardinal signs during this period too (hence the “Cardinal Climax”). It will be the first time since 1930 that these three planets have been in such a T-square to one another. That was also the last time in which the Republican Party controlled the House, the Senate, and the White House (1929-1933). Let’s hope the results of decisions being made now – whether economic or in terms of immigration policies - are better than the results of decisions made during that time. It is possible that the two relate to one another. The immigration policy has an economic consequence.
Announcements:
The “SOS Stock Market Cycles Report” (and Global stock markets) will come out this week. These reports come out every 6-8 weeks to subscribers, and cover our long-term cycle’s analysis of the U.S. stock market (DJIA and NASDAQ) as well as the XAU Gold and Silver Mining Index. The second part also covers our shorter-term analysis of the German DAX, Netherlands AEX. London FTSE, Australian All Ordinaries, Hang Seng of Hong Kong, and other markets.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the authors understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycles analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
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